Strategic investing mirrors the steady rise and fall of the tides, focusing on long-term goals and expectations more stable akin to the predictable rhythm of oceans. On the other hand, investing in tactical time horizons resembles the dynamic nature of changing tides, responding to short-term market conditions like unpredictable surges and waves in the sea. Here we compare and contrast these two distinct processes and recap our recent strategic asset allocation change.

Bullion broke new ground last week after rallying to a record high. Growing investor confidence for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut by this summer dragged down yields and the dollar, creating a tailwind for gold. The breakout above key resistance at $2,075 was also a major technical development, confirmed by bullish momentum that suggests the rally could continue. Global central bank demand has been another key catalyst and has shown no sign of slowing down, while a rebound in demand from gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could provide additional support for the yellow metal.

After a slow start mired by messy bank results early on, corporate America picked up the pace and ended up delivering results well ahead of expectations. The “Super Six” was part of the story — the Magnificent Seven minus Tesla (TSLA) — but resilient profit margins are also noteworthy. Here we review fourth quarter earnings season and share some thoughts on the earnings outlook for 2024.

After a brief lull in 2023, buyback activity appears to be back this year. A resilient U.S. economy, easing inflation pressures, and expectations for an eventual shift to interest rate cuts have given corporate America confidence to boost authorized share repurchases. These companies have a history of outperforming the broader market and tend to have more exposure to momentum, value, and growth factors. While buybacks also reduce share count and help support earnings growth and valuations, they can also help limit downside volatility during periods of selling pressure.

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues with its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, questions abound regarding the Treasury Department’s expanding funding needs. The QT program is designed to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet — now $7.7 billion down from $9 billion — after Treasury notes (mostly) were bought after economic concerns intensified during the COVID-19-related pandemic. Households and, perhaps surprisingly, foreign investors have been buyers recently, and with the amount of Treasury supply coming to market, both will need to keep buying.